![]() “Biden now has a long record, and not much of it is good, as you can see in his job approval ratings. He was the old-hand moderate or Scranton Joe or whatever,” said Adam Geller, a Republican pollster currently not aligned with a campaign in 2024 but who has done polling for Trump in the past. “In 2020, Joe Biden was running as a Trump alternative, and because there was not a lot of campaigning, he was whatever you wanted him to be. Some Republican pollsters also argue that the legal issues will not significantly drive voters because there is such high awareness of them - so there are few voters who haven't already made up their minds on the issue - and traditionally, people vote based on the record of the incumbent. That's despite the fact Trump led Biden by more than 20 points on which candidate would handle the economy better and more than 30 points on which would handle the border and immigration issues better. Trump led Biden 47%-42% among registered voters, but Biden had a 45%-43% advantage when respondents were asked whom they would support if Trump were convicted of a felony before Election Day. NBC News polling data released Sunday backs the notion that Trump's legal troubles could provide problems for him in the general election. ![]() Of those surveyed, 52% indicated that it would most concern them if Trump were convicted on any of the counts related to that indictment. In addition, 68% of those polled said they believe strongly or somewhat that Trump “attempted a coup after the 2020 election.”Įach of Trump’s four indictments raised some concern with those polled, but by far the most concerning was the federal indictment brought as part of special counsel Jack Smith’s investigation into the Jan. The polling focused on a series of messaging issues, asking respondents about “statements that could be used to describe former president Donald Trump.” Among those, 55% had very serious or serious doubts about Trump when asked about his role in a potential “coup,” a number that was 57% when they were asked about “indictments.” “They were plus-17 Trump in the past, and the only thing keeping them where they are right now is the belief that a vote for Trump is a vote to end democracy.” “The point is that these voters should be much more in Trump’s favor,” Schale said. The poll, taken in late September, included 1,000 respondents from each of the three states, including 482 voters who said they had unfavorable views of both Trump and Biden - a segment of voters the group refers to as "no nos." That type of voter backed Trump over Hillary Clinton by 17 points in 2016 but favor him 51%-48% over Biden now, according to Unite the Country's polling shared with NBC News. The group has reported raising $2.1 million so far in 2024, almost exclusively from union groups. During the 2020 election cycle, it raised and spent nearly $50 million backing Biden. It has already been polling the issues in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, swing states that will play a crucial role in Biden’s re-election strategy. Unite the Country - the original pro-Biden super PAC started in 2019 to support his first presidential bid - will focus mostly on digital ads with some TV sprinkled in. ![]() That stance means much of the negative focus on Trump’s indictment will fall on outside groups like United the Country.īiden's campaign declined to comment for this article. We’re not going to focus on Donald Trump’s legal problems.” “The president has said from the beginning that he wanted an independent Justice Department, and we have to do just that,” Richmond, who previously was a top aide to Biden in the White House, said in an interview on ABC News’ “ This Week.” “So we’re not going to comment. Biden's campaign has so far tried to avoid directly attacking Trump for his legal issues over concerns it could fuel a perception that he is using his administration's Justice Department to attack his chief political rival.
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